Paul the eight-legged oracle is a genius or not???? Lets find out.
The octopus had a 100% success rate after getting 8/8 predictions right during the World Cup 2010. Paul as he is known as is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, who is used as an animal oracle to predict the results of football matches, usually international matches in which Germany is playing.
During a divination, Paul is presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. His predictions have been 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall. Assuming Paul’s predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of 12 successful predictions in 14 attempts is 91/1684 ≈ 0.56% as given by the binomial distribution, and the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is 1/256 ≈ 0.39%.
|Poland||Group Stage||8 June||Germany||Ger 2-0 Pol||Correct|
|Croatia||Group Stage||12 June||Germany||Ger 1-2 Cro||Incorrect|
|Austria||Group Stage||16 June||Germany||Aus 0-1 Ger||Correct|
|Portugal||Quarter-Final||19 June||Germany||Por 2-3 Ger||Correct|
|Turkey||Semi-Final||25 June||Germany||Ger 3-2 Tur||Correct|
|Spain||Final||29 June||Germany||Esp 1-0 Ger||Incorrect|
|Australia||Group Stage||13 June||Germany||Ger 4-0 Aus||Correct|
|Germany||Group Stage||18 June||Serbia||Ger 0-1 Srb||Correct|
|Ghana||Group Stage||23 June||Germany||Gha 0-1 Ger||Correct|
|England||Round of 16||27 June||Germany||Ger 4-1 Eng||Correct|
|Argentina||Quarter-Final||3 July||Germany||Arg 0-4 Ger||Correct|
|Spain||Semi-Final||7 July||Spain||Ger 0-1 Esp||Correct|
|Uruguay||3-4 play-off||10 July||Germany||Uru 2-3 Ger||Correct|
|Netherlands||Final||11 July||Spain||Ned 0-1 Esp||Correct|
|11 times||3 times|
|Home Team (Right Box)||Away Team (Left Box)|
|6 times||8 times|
FIFA World Cup 2010 – Paul’s Predictions (Videos):
My personal opinion is that it has nothing to do with its intelligence. It is dumb octopus which just loves mussels for lunch and the fact is that Paul is just a very very lucky octopus who is gaining the attention of the world!!!